Let’s talk about the last ten days of October.  A couple shots of colder than normal air should provide us with our first true “cold spell” of the fall season.  Temperatures will average below normal from October 21-31, especially near Halloween.  It also looks like we’re setting up for a fairly wet pattern.  Keep in mind, the last 11 days of October only averages .80″ of rain.  So, it’s not going to take much to be “above normal” in the rainfall department.  I’m not ready to say we’ll see any flurries close to Halloween, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some places north of I-80 or in the mountains get a flake or two toward the end of the month.

As always . . . watch our video extended forecast on-line http://www.wpxi.com/video/17699492/index.html

80 degrees in the middle of October?  It is certainly not unheard of around here, but it is a bit on the rare side.  Pittsburgh has seen two true October heat waves since records have been kept in the 1870s.  A heat wave, in October, is usually considered to be three consecutive days at or more than 80 degrees for high temperatures.  October 14-16, 1897, averaged 87 degrees for the high over the three-day period.  Just last year, 2007, we had a six-day stretch from October 4-9 with high temperatures averaging 85 degrees.  Enjoy it while it lasts.  High temperatures by the end of the week will be in the 50s.

Each week I do an extended forecast that airs Sunday mornings on Channel 11 News Weekend.  It is basically a general outlook for a period beyond the 5-day forecast.  However, I decided for the true weather connoisseur I’d start going a little more in depth each week right here on our blog page.  So, here goes the first one . . .

OCTOBER 16-31

I think we can safely say goodbye to the 80s for 2008.  The weather over the weekend of the 10th through the 12th is going to be amazing, but once we get past the 15th it gets harder to get those kind of numbers.  The second half of the month will probably average at or slight below normal with a real cooldown after the 22nd.  Cold air is packed into the west right now and that should tilt and spill out into the east during the third week of October.  With the jet stream shifting south – the storm tracks will also shift south meaning a bit better chance for rain around here.  So, precip should be at or above normal across the region.  The best chance for above normal rainfall would be north of the I-80 corridor for this stretch.  Keep in mind, we only average 1.15″ of rain for the last half of October, so it won’t take much to put us above normal in the first place.  I’m not quite ready to say we’re definitely NOT going to see some snow this month, but as is par for the course, the best chance would be north of I-80 after the 25th.

There is definitely some color now.  I noticed it full tilt on my way home from work on Thursday.  i take Camp Horne Road from the Parkway North to route 65.  It’s very tree-lined and really pops this time of year.  Most of the Pittsburgh area is only running about 20%-30% of color right now, but you don’t have to go very far this weekend to get an eye full.  The mountains are about 50%-60% right now and northcentral Pennsylvania is near peak.  That area will be past peak by next weekend.

For the latest on the colors around the state of Pennsylvania check out www.FallinPA.com .  Next week I’m going to list some of my favorite drives around the area.

Mid-October, five days of sunshine, highs approaching 80 degrees – must be Indian Summer.  Ehhhhh. . . maybe, maybe not.

Traditionally, the definition of Indian summer is a prolonged period of warm, dry weather (so far so good) . . . . following the first frost.  There’s the caveat.  Only part of our area has seen the first frost.  I say “traditionally” because it can also be interpretedas a warm, dry period of weather following an early season cold snap.  I’m willing to call last week’s high temperatures of 54 and 59 (October 2 and 3) as a cold snap for early October.  So, call the coming days Indian Summer if you want.  Especially because the later we go into October without a thorough frost – the less likely it is that we get a true Indian Summer.

By the way, because I’m a google geek (actually I still prefer yahoo . . . yes, I’m old) I tried to look up where the term “Indian Summer” came from.  The earliest reference I could find courtesy of www.phrases.org is from a 1778 piece titled “Letters From an American Farmer”.  Here is the entry:

“Then a severe frost succeeds which prepares it to receive the voluminous coat of snow which is soon to follow; though it is often preceded by a short interval of smoke and mildness, called the Indian Summer.”

The smoke is referring to haze.  Indian Summer can often be a bit humid before the next cold front comes in and cools the air off in a more permanent manner.

I make no secret of my love for snow.  Winter is my favorite season (mainly because of Christmas).  When the calendar turns to October I start to get excited about the first snowfall.  So, imagine my disappointment this morning as I’m looking up snowfall records from the past 125 years and come to realize we’re in a bit of an October snow drought.

Now, let me be realistic.  We only average 0.4″ of snow in October.  It’s not like we get snow every October.  And when we do it’s usually some flurries or a dusting.  But we have only had measurable snow once in the last 15 years . . . October, 2001, . . . a whopping 0.2″.  We’ve seen at least flurries eight of the last nine Octobers, but only measurable snow once in 15 years.  I don’t think this year is going to be any different.  The rest of the month looks to be generally warm (by October standards).  This is potentially great news for trick-or-treaters who might not have to cover their costumes with heavy coats and hats.  By the way, the last great Halloween snow . . . 1993 when we got 7″ of snow on Halloween day.  A trick for most, a treat for me.

Every Friday in October I’m going to try to give you an update on fall foliage in the area.  Peak season in southwestern Pennsylvania is mid-October, so you can imagine there is not much to report this week.

I did notice a little bit of color in Latrobe the other day when I was at Latrobe Country Club for a fundraiser for the Latrobe Art Center.  Obviously, the Laurel Highlands will go first with the color.  However, I do have concerns with the lack of rainfall around here.  A dry end to summer and start to autumn usually doesn’t do us much good with the fall color. 

For detailed information check out www.fallinpa.com. It’s a great site for the latest on fall colors, area maps and suggestions for day and weekend trips across the state.

October arrives on Wednesday and with it the coldest high temperatures we have seen since May.  May 22 was the last time we had high temperatures in the 50s.  We should be able to pull off two straight day in the 50s this week….. ehh, maybe three days in a few locations.

Now, clouds at night will keep temperatures from falling off too much during the middle of the week.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Friday night we saw some scattered frost north the route 422 corridor and in the valleys of the Laurel Highlands.  It should be a good, old-fashioned, chilly October night for high school football games across the area.

Temperatures will rebound a bit this weekend which is great news for the Pittsburgh 250 festivities downtown.

. . . It’s DRY!  We’re about to break the mark for driest stretch of days in 2008.  Look at the list – what you’ll notice is the three driest stretches of the year have all occurred in the last 40 days.  Not exactly a biblical stretch of rain.  The good news is it looks like the pattern will begin to change a bit over the next 10 days which should mean at least several chances of rain as we head into October.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT RAIN IN 2008:

10     September 15-24

10     Aug. 30 – Sept. 8

  9     August 15-23

  6     July 14-19

  5     April 14-18

Last week I wrote about lightning safety and Major League Baseball.  Apparently, I am not the only one a bit concerned with how long umpires allow a game to continue.  Check out the link and read my post below: Someone Remind Me to Call MLB.

http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080807&content_id=3269464&vkey=mlbpa_news&fext=.jsp